US President Barack Obama has accepted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to be chief guest at the Republic Day ceremony in January 2015.
India must be prepared for a big, fat fuel import bill in FY23 - barring any further avatars of the Covid virus - as refiners crank up runs, or crude processing rates, to meet the growing demand for fuels, and crude prices soar. Capacity additions by an Indian state-run refiner will reinforce the need for foreign crude. Demand for all fuels is expected to increase by 3-8 per cent next fiscal from 2021-22, reaching pre-pandemic levels, according to analysts and industry experts.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had recently backed the agitating farmers in India, saying his country will always be there to defend the rights of peaceful protests. He had expressed concern over the situation.
'Why do we make finance ministers go into contortions, to tell us that near 6% is 3.5%?' 'Why not encourage more open and full accounting so that the country knows the real picture,' asks T N Ninan.
A visibly elated Sharma said the decision gave India complete protection even if it breached the food subsidy limit under WTO rules
'80% of the rural and urban population don't have enough purchasing power.'
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as compared to 3.3 per cent previously planned.
The Congress will only be able to gain from the bill if its benefits percolate down to the people within the next eight months, says Anita Katyal
Congress on launched an all out attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi accusing him of "misleading" people on the WTO issue and ridiculed BJP over its "Congress phobia".
'The government should act proactively to instil confidence in the private investors, and also boost the purchasing power of people directly or indirectly by ensuring minimum wages.'
The Centre and states are likely to budget for higher market borrowings to the tune of Rs 2.3 lakh crore next fiscal even though the Union budget may peg a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit for the Centre at 5.8 per cent of GDP, says a report. Icra Ratings anticipates higher redemptions will lead to gross market borrowings of the Centre to rise to Rs 14.8 lakh crore and of the states to jump by Rs 1.6 lakh crore to Rs 9.6 lakh crore, taking the combined borrowings (of the Centre and the states) to Rs 24.4 lakh crore in FY2024, up by 2.3 lakh crore from FY23 combined. In FY23, the Centre's gross borrowings are budgeted at Rs 14.1 lakh crore and of the states at Rs 8 lakh crore, or a combined borrowing of Rs 22.1 lakh crore, according to the agency.
'When you need to revive the economy, when you need to revive aggregate demand, you cut taxes.' 'But what's this government doing?' 'It's increasing taxes for the middle class and the vast majority of the poor on fuel, which has a ratchet effect on most other products.'
In an interview with Nayanima Basu, the DG lauds the efforts of Indian negotiators in bringing the deal on the table.
India rejected the proposed interim measure and trade facilitation agreement, risking an outright collapse of the ongoing talks.
'There is good indication that the economy is bouncing back, but the problem is, we should look at the eight quarters preceding March 2020.' 'The growth had fallen below 3.1% before March 2020.' 'So, the governments must realise that even if you transform the best of green shoots into banyan trees, you see only 3.1% growth.'
'The Budget will have to be substantially re-cast as soon as a new government takes charge after the elections.' 'Both revenue and expenditure numbers will have to be trimmed -- and then may better reflect the deceleration of economic activity caused by slowing consumption trends,' points out T N Ninan.
The Congress needs to reorganise itself at the grassroots, infuse younger blood, and have more boots on the ground. Just offering freebies is not the answer anymore. Leadership matters, asserts Ramesh Menon.
As the kharif season is setting in, India is scrambling to source fertilisers from the international market. It is set to sign long-term contracts - especially with Morocco and Latin American countries - to ensure steady flow of supplies. "We have to source fertilisers wherever it is available because crops have to be secured.
Budget-makers in North Block are looking to maintain this fiscal status quo, in spite of tax revenues nowhere close to where the government wants and in spite of possible higher expenditure commitments.
'That is the one headline the world is reading about India this week, and it is a potentially damaging story...' 'I don't think a panic mentality has set in, but this story is one that investors and market watchers are absolutely seized with.'
Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was informally recommended to the post by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
The stellar rise in corporate earnings in financial year 2021-22 (FY21) and FY22 did not result in a corresponding boom in capital expenditure (capex), with listed companies' investment in fixed assets rising just 2.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in FY22, growing at the slowest pace in the last six years. In comparison, the firms' combined net profit jumped 63.5 per cent YoY in FY22, while net sales increased 31.1 per cent - the fastest pace in over a decade. The 955 non-financial companies in Business Standard's sample reported combined net profit of Rs 7.18 trillion in FY22, compared with Rs 4.39 trillion in FY21 and Rs 2.59 trillion in FY20.
The opposition party vowed to hit the streets against the "Modi-made inflation" and run a people's movement over price rise.
Modi had clearly not come to terms with the limits to a prime minister's powers, any prime minister's powers however strong numbers he may have in Parliament, observes Virendra Kapoor.
India is still the best story in major emerging markets from a 5-year perspective.
It is now becoming increasingly clear that rising imports have played a significant role in sustaining the buoyancy in revenues from GST, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
Budget should raise revenues & reduce spending to increase capital expenditure.
The government will amend the six-and-a-half-decade old Essential Commodities Act to deregulate food items, including cereals, edible oil, oilseeds, pulses, onion and potato, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday. The amendment, besides deregulating production and sale of food products, will provide for no stock limit to be imposed on any produce.
'The finance minister in her Budget speech should spell out how exactly she intends to get back to the 7% track, and the hard decisions she intends to take in order to adjust to the realities of a slowing economy until growth momentum returns,' suggests T N Ninan.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.
The area under paddy - the biggest foodgrain during the kharif season - was almost 13 per cent lower in the week ended August 5 as compared to the same period last year despite a slight pick-up in rains in the main growing regions, triggering fears of a 10-12 million-tonne drop in final output. Sources said with the peak sowing season for paddy almost coming to an end in the big-growing states, any uptick in coverage from here onwards may not give the desired yields. With 30 per cent of normal average area in which paddy is grown every year remaining unsown till early August, there is a limited chance of a big uptick in output, trade and market sources said.
To help revive the economy battered by COVID-19, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced a slew of measures, including Rs 1.1 lakh crore credit guarantee scheme for improving health infrastructure, and enhancing the limit under the ECLGS by 50 per cent to Rs 4.5 lakh crore for the MSME sector facing liquidity crunch. Sharing the details of stimulus package, the finance minister said this comprises eight relief measures and other eight measures to support the economic growth. She announced Rs 1.1 lakh crore loan guarantee scheme for COVID-affected sectors, including health sector, which includes guarantee cover for expansion or for new projects. Besides, she said, additional Rs 1.5 lakh crore limit enhancement done for Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) scheme.
Prime Minister Modi has certainly pulled back, and his political capital -- dependent as it is on an image that he knows best and never retreats -- may have taken a bit of a beating. But, equally, it is hard to say that the protesters have 'won', argues Mihir S Sharma.
Budget clearly prioritised growth over fiscal consolidation, said Atsi Sheth, Senior VP, Moody's Investors Service.
The government had last year excluded those with an annual income of more than Rs 10 lakh from LPG subsidy
The central government on Friday stopped the doorstep delivery of ration scheme MMGGRY (Mukhya Mantri Ghar Ghar Ration Yojana) of the Delhi government, scheduled to be launched on March 25.
